Futures Research..

As I research into the rising sea levels I believe more and more in the 'Architecture Fiction' we're designing. There are endless documents on the looming sea level rises and climate change and their possible effects all over the world.



Sea level rise

The warming of our seas are another contributing factor to the rising sea level. As well as harming much marine life.

(CSIRO 2008)

Something that could have a significant impact on our Future Scenario is the people that will be displaced from the sea level rise. This is something that I needed to look into more and get some more facts.

"A 2007 World Bank study identified the relationships between sea level rise (SLR) and its impact on population, and geography. This study does not provide a timescale for SLR, but it does project the percentage of individuals who will be adversely affected by SLR. The effects of sea level rise (SLR), one result of climate change, differ across the globe.

Using 2008 population estimates, one can calculate that a one meter SLR could affect 3.3 million citizens in Latin America and the Caribbean while a five meter SLR potentially impacts 15.5 million people in the same region. In the Middle East & North Africa and East Asia, a SLR of one meter is projected to affect 31.7 million people while a five meter SLR could uproot up to 36 million residents. In South Asia, one of the most populous regions of the world, a one meter SLR could negatively affect 5.8 million people while a five meter SLR could harm as many as 39 million individuals." (CSIRO 2008)

Perpetuating cycle

Al Gore is famous for his investigations into climate change and the effects it might have on our planet, very well known for 'An Inconvenient Truth'. The warming of the earth is causing ice caps to melt, but this causes a further problem of methane being released into the air that was suppressed under the ice caps.

This highlighted for me the fact that one bad thing will lead to another as a possibly uncontrollable downward spiral will have a chain reaction of bad things.



Climate change effects

"The shifting of the Earth’s temperature increases vulnerability to natural disaster; food, air, and energy security; the ability to sustain livelihoods, and the establishment of permanent residences.  As a result of unmitigated climate change in the most vulnerable developing countries, agricultural production will likely decline.  Less reliable rainfall will impact planting seasons, crop growth and livestock health.  Flooding will further diminish the quality of already-marginal soil and cause outbreaks of water-borne diseases such as cholera and dysentery.  Longer dry seasons will take a serious toll.  Ongoing population growth, with its increased demand for irrigation and industrial development, will continue to compound the crisis."(PRCDC 2009)

This quote sums up for me quite succinctly the idea that i had for our Woodford of 2050 and beyond. All the affects of climate change and the different impacts they will have. This basically outlines all the problems I should now aim to solve, or at least attempt to solve.

References:
CSIRO. 2008. "Why Does Sea Level Change?". Accessed August 19. 2012. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_drives_longer.html.

PRCDC. 2009. "People Move: Rising Seas and Climate Displacement". Accessed August 19, 2012. http://prcdc.org/blog/index.php?/archives/92-People-Move-Rising-Seas-and-Climate-Displacement.html.